Case Study: 2010 Vermont Governor

Gov. Peter Shumlin

“As a media consultant, the thing I like best about Stanford Campaigns is when you make an attack based on their research, you know it will stick.” — Christopher Klose, Gov. Shumlin’s media consultant

Democrats only picked up three Governor’s Mansions in 2010. One of those was in Vermont, where Peter Shumlin, a state senator, narrowly pulled out a win in a late August Democratic Primary to face the well-liked Lt. Governor, Brian Dubie. In fact, a recount delayed the primary result, meaning that by the time the Shumlin campaign called us, there was less than two months left before Election Day.

“We hired Stanford Campaigns with less than two months before Election Day. We didn’t have enough time to do a deliberate research job on the Republican. We needed everything done right away, and 100% accurately. Jason Stanford and his team were dedicated to doing what it took to win, whether it was ensuring that what our paid media said was accurate or that we didn’t miss an opportunity to use the research in drawing contrasts. The committed professionals at Stanford Campaigns were a big reason we were able to win despite a significant Republican wave that day.” — Alex MacLean, campaign manager, Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin

The polls had Shumlin behind by 6 points, meaning he had to make up ground when every other Democrat in the country was just trying to hold ground. To make matters worse, national Republicans smelled blood in the water and started flooding the airwaves with attack ads while the Shumlin campaign was just getting its general election ads on the air.

Our research found a couple of things that helped turn the tide. First was an old quote (“I’m a George Bush, pro-life Republican”) that helped peel off pro-choice votes from the Republican, and another was the story of a trade mission that Dubie had lead to China for the stated reason of opening up that country to Vermont goods. The trouble was that the business leaders, who had donated thousands of dollars to Dubie’s campaigns, had actually opened up China to Vermont jobs after they closed shop at home. In a down economy, this was just what the voters needed to know about the Republican nominee.

After two weeks of comparative television ads, Dubie had dropped 8 points as Shumlin established a slim lead that he held onto even as the bottom dropped out for Democrats across the country. On Nov. 2, 2010, Peter Shumlin won by 1%.