Case Study: 2010 NC-07

Rep. Mike McIntyre

Before the Nov. 2010 elections, there were 48 Democrats in Congress who represented districts that Sen. John McCain won in 2008. After the 2010 elections, there were only 12, including our client, Rep. Mike McIntyre. He not only successfully defended a conservative-leaning district in an overwhelmingly Republican year, but he did so against the determined onslaught of the only so-called “Jack Bauer Republican” to lose that year.

“There’s a big difference between assembling a great research book and being a great political consultant — it’s premised on the idea that the information provided is actionable. That’s the difference Stanford Campaigns makes for our clients. Jason and his team not only do great research, they offer insightful ideas in terms of what we put on TV and radio, then fact-check every script and make sure we never say anything that could leave our clients vulnerable. They are committed to winning and an invaluable part of a successful team.” -David Heller, McIntyre’s media consultant

Ilario Pantano was tagged a “Jack Bauer Republican” because, as a Marine Corps 2nd Lieutenant serving in Iraq, he shot two suspected—yet unarmed—insurgents with his M-16, emptying an entire magazine, reloading, and emptying a second before leaving a hand-written placard on their bodies bearing the unofficial Marine motto, “No better friend, no worse enemy.” Subsequent charges of premeditated murder were dropped due to insufficient evidence, whereupon Pantano left the Marine Corps and moved to North Carolina where he briefly, and unsuccessfully, became a Deputy Sheriff.

In 2010, this was a viable candidate, especially in a congressional district that included Ft. Bragg. The pro-military voters did not care that Pantano had murdered two unarmed Iraqis. In fact, they thought it spoke well of him, presenting a unique challenge to seven-term Rep. Mike McIntyre, a Blue Dog Democrat who had survived previously Republican tides thanks to his independent voting record. In 2008, he had won re-election with 68% of the district, but public polls released after Labor Day in 2010 showed McIntyre polling behind Pantano by as much as 7%, a nearly insurmountable lead given the pro-Republican environment. National support flooded in for the Republican, with Rudolph Giuliani, Sarah Palin and Tea Party groups offering their support.

Luckily for us, Pantano was filmed making ill-advised comments defending free trade, an anathema in that district, and our research documented other instances in which he espoused similar positions, making it impossible for him to back out of it. This became the focus of McIntyre’s comparative television ads as we furiously helped refute a barrage of Republican charges. Not many Democrats in swing districts were left standing after 2010, but Mike McIntyre was one of them, coming back from a significant deficit to pull out a narrow win. North Carolina’s 7th congressional district was the second-most Republican-leaning district in the entire country to re-elect the Democrat.